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Raiffeisenbank: Short-term Indicators Point to a Comparatively Weak Fourth Quarter of 2011
09 February 2012
Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD has published its monthly economic review of the data which were available as of the end of January 2012. The review reflects the deceleration in industrial production growth from 3.3% in the third quarter down to 1.6% yoy on average for October and November. For the same period, annual drops of 3.3% and 10.5% of domestic trade and construction production were reported. According to the analysts, the data created expectations of a comparatively weak growth rate of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2011.
In December inflation was 2.8% vs. the end of 2010, which was lower than the forecast and reflected the low domestic demand. In the same month unemployment grew to 11.5% (from 10.8% in November), which was expected in view of the weak economic activity in winter and the lack of a stable recovery of the labour market in the summer. The fiscal sector ended the year with better-than-expected results, the budget deficit having been lowered to 2.1% considerably under the threshold of 3%.
„Insecurity regarding incomes and employment, as well as the expectations of a return of the recession in the Eurozone are the main factors leading households and companies in Bulgaria to accumulate savings in bank deposits instead of spending on investments and consumption,” commented Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria)’s chief economist Kaloyan Ganev. “Delaying the resolution of the debt crisis in Europe will continue to have an unfavourable impact on the Bulgarian economy in the next months,” Ganev added.
